Q3 2021 Nevada Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the greater Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The Las Vegas economy continues to recover following the major loss of jobs that resulted from the pandemic. Over the past three months, the area returned a respectable 23,300 jobs of which almost half were in the hard-hit Leisure and Hospitality industry. Although jobs are returning at a fairly decent pace, it is worth noting that the current employment level is still down 89,000 jobs from the peak prior to COVID-19. The unemployment level in Las Vegas has dropped to 8.2%, significantly lower than the pandemic peak of 33.3%, and I am optimistic the area will return to full employment by the end of next summer.

nevada Home Sales

❱ A total of 10,690 homes sold in the third quarter, which was an increase of 12.3% compared to the same period a year ago. Sales were 4.9% lower than during the second quarter.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, fell 4.5% compared to the second quarter of the year.

❱ Sales rose in every neighborhood other than Centennial, but the drop there was minor. Transactions rose the most in the Whitney and Southeast Las Vegas market areas, but six additional neighborhoods also experienced double-digit growth.

❱ The drop in pending sales may be a function of rising inventory levels which are giving buyers more choice and allowing them to take more time deciding which home they want to buy.

nevada Home Prices

A chart showing the sub-market areas and their corresponding zip codes in the greater Las Vegas area.

❱ Home prices rose 20.7% from a year ago to an average of $438,994. Prices were also 2.3% higher than in the second quarter of this year. The rise of prices over the past few years is certainly impacting affordability, which is the lowest it has been since 2018.

❱ Mortgage rates remain competitive, which is causing prices to continue trending higher even as affordability constraints emerge.

❱ Prices rose by double digits in every sub-market other than Spring Valley compared to the same quarter last year. Compared to the second quarter of this year, prices were also higher in every area other than Anthem and Henderson.

❱ Although the economy is improving, affordability will act as a headwind to significant price growth moving forward. When mortgage rates start to tick higher, this too will have a slowing effect on the pace of appreciation.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in various sections of the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area during the third quarter of 2021.

Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region fell 24 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 18 days to sell a home in the third quarter, which was 4 fewer days than in the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Days on market dropped across the board compared to a year ago, and all areas other than Anthem and Queensridge saw market time fall compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ The greatest drop in market time was in the Aliante market, where the length of time it took to sell a home fell 43 days compared to a year ago.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various sections of the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area during the third quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Jobs in Las Vegas continue to recover, and this should be a stimulant to the housing market. However, higher inventory levels combined with slower sales tells me that we need to look at the impact of rising home prices. Listing prices shot up earlier this year but levelled off and then dropped during the summer. This suggests that sellers realized there is a limit to what their homes are really worth.

As a result, the market may have lost some momentum, but it’s nothing more than a move back to a more realistic pace of home-price appreciation. All things considered, with rising inventory levels and slower price growth, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers. However, it remains a seller’s market.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q3 2021 Nevada Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Windermere Real Estate.

Q2 2021 Nevada Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the greater Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The job market in Las Vegas continues to recover from the significant impacts of COVID-19, with the pace of jobs returning picking up a little steam in recent months. In the second quarter 30,100 jobs returned, which is up from 12,800 in the first quarter. That said, total employment in the area is still down by more than 105,000 jobs from its pre-pandemic peak. Even as jobs return, the unemployment level remains elevated at 8.9%. However, this is still significantly lower than the pandemic-induced peak of 33.3%. Although the region continues its job recovery, I am concerned that the rise in new COVID-19 cases, which started to trend higher in June, may slow the pace of recovery.

nevada Home Sales

❱ A total of 11,243 homes sold in the second quarter, a massive increase of more than 84% compared to the same period a year ago, and 15.8% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

❱ Pending sales—an indicator of future closings— rose 3.3% compared to the first quarter of the year. I would have liked to see a higher number, but I put the relatively low level down to supply-side constraints.

❱ Compared to second quarter of last year, sales rose over 50% in every market and more than doubled in four. Although these statistics sound amazing, we should not forget that the pandemic was in full swing a year ago, which had a significant impact on home sales.

❱ Lower pending sales can be attributed to the fact that the average number of homes on the market in the quarter was down 3.4% relative to the first quarter of the year, and down more than 60% from the same period a year ago. The market remains supply starved.

nevada Home Prices

A chart showing the sub-market areas and their corresponding zip codes in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

❱ With sales up and listings down, it should come as no surprise that home prices continued their upward trend. Year over year, average prices were up 27.1% to $429,049. Sale prices were also 8.3% higher than in the first quarter of this year.

❱ Mortgage rates rose in the first quarter but have again pulled back, which has increased interest from buyers and is pushing prices higher.

❱ Prices rose in every sub-market other than Queensridge compared to the same quarter last year, with double-digit gains in all neighborhoods. When compared to the first quarter of 2021, prices were also higher in every area other than Queensridge, with double-digit appreciation in Anthem, The Lakes/Section 10, Southwest, and Northeast Las Vegas.

❱ The takeaway is that demand still exceeds supply, and this is causing prices to continue to rise at a significant pace. That said, the rate of appreciation is unsustainable, and will start to slow; the question is when.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region dropped 15 days compared to the second quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 23 days to sell a home in the second quarter, which was 16 fewer days than in the first quarter of 2021.

❱ Days-on-market dropped across the board compared to a year ago, and all areas saw market time fall compared to the first quarter of this year.

❱ The greatest decline in market time was in the Aliante market, where the length of time it took to sell a home dropped 29 days compared to a year ago.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Even though jobs are returning, rising COVID-19 cases may slow the area’s economic recovery. I suspect that some home sellers will choose to wait to list their homes until infection rates start to drop. If this is the case, the supply-demand imbalance we see today will only be exacerbated. While this is bad news for home buyers, it will bode well for sellers. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in their favor.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q2 2021 Nevada Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Windermere Real Estate.

Q1 2021 Nevada Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the greater Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Needless to say, the Las Vegas job market was hit hard by COVID-19. Fortunately, the recovery continues, with more than 142,000 jobs returning. That said, total employment is still 138,000 below the pre-pandemic peak of 1.054 million jobs. With jobs returning, it is natural to see the unemployment rate improve. It has now fallen below 10%, standing at 9.3% in February. There is still a long way to go before the area gets back to full employment, but things are heading in the right direction. New COVID-19 infection rates were fairly stable in the first quarter but increased in April. That said, they are significantly lower than last winter. Moreover, the rapid increase in vaccinations is likely to lead to more travel, and that can significantly impact the Las Vegas job market. I hope this trend continues.

nevada Home Sales

❱ A total of 9,709 homes sold in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 23.3% compared to the same period a year ago but down 3% from the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, rose 16.8% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, suggesting that closings in the second quarter of 2021 will likely be positive. Pending sales were also 40.2% higher than they were a year ago.

❱ Sales rose in every market other than Northeast Las Vegas, which had a very modest drop. The Anthem area saw significant growth in sales, but it is worth noting that all but two markets saw double-digit growth in sales.

❱ Listing activity is still very low, with the average number of homes for sale down 52.2% compared to a year ago and 43.9% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

nevada Home Prices

A chart showing the sub-market areas and their corresponding zip codes in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

❱ With sales rising and so few homes for sale, it’s not surprising that home prices continue to rise. The average sale price in the first quarter rose 21.1% year over year to $396,020. Prices were also up by 3.3% compared to the final quarter of 2020.

❱ Despite rising mortgage rates, price growth continues at well above average levels. It’s unclear at the moment when this might change.

❱ Prices rose in every sub-market compared to the same quarter last year. All but four neighborhoods experienced double-digit gains.

❱ The takeaway is that demand still exceeds supply, and this is causing prices to continue to rise rapidly.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region dropped ten days compared to the first quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 39 days to sell a home in the first quarter of 2021, which was two more days than in the prior quarter.

❱ Days on market dropped in all but two neighborhoods contained in this report compared to a year ago. The exceptions were Queens Ridge (+1 day) and The Lakes/Section 10 (+3 days).

❱ The greatest drop in market time was in the Summerlin market, where the length of time it took to sell a home dropped 18 days compared to a year ago.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The Las Vegas economy continues to improve from the impact of COVID-19, and demand for housing remains very strong. Even in the face of rising mortgage rates and limited options of homes for sale, buyers remain engaged. Naturally, these conditions favor home sellers, so I am moving the needle a little more in their favor.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q1 2021 Nevada Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Windermere Real Estate.

Q4 2020 Nevada Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the greater Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

COVID-19 led to the loss of almost 247,000 jobs in the Las Vegas market—a very significant number. I am happy to report that more than 114,000 of them have now returned. The Leisure & Hospitality sector, unsurprisingly, was significantly impacted, but we are seeing continued improvement here: more than 75,000 of the 136,000 jobs that were lost have returned. With the job recovery continuing at a decent pace, the unemployment rate, which peaked at a remarkable 34% in April, continues to improve. The November rate was 11.5%. The market still has a way to go to get back to where it was pre-COVID, but the improvement is palpable. While the job recovery remains in place, COVID-19 infection rates are still elevated, even if they have pulled back from the new peak seen in December. I remain hopeful that new infection rates will continue to drop and, if I am correct, more jobs will be recovered. But I don’t expect to see a faster recovery until a vaccine becomes readily available.

nevada Home Sales

❱ A total of 10,008 homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 22.7% compared to the same period a year ago, and 5.2% higher than in the third quarter of 2020.

❱ Pending sales dropped 8.7% from the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2021 may be lower than I would like to see. That said, pending sales were 27.4% higher year-over-year.

❱ Sales rose in every market other than Downtown, which saw a very modest drop. The Anthem area once again had significant growth. It is also worth noting that all but two markets saw double-digit growth in sales.

❱ Listing activity was down 16.9% compared to the third quarter, and 34.2% lower than the fourth quarter of 2019. I still expect listings will remain relatively muted until a vaccine is readily available and the Las Vegas economy gets back to as close to normal as possible.

nevada Home Prices

A chart showing the sub-market areas and their corresponding zip codes in the greater Las Vegas area.

❱ With sales rising and inventory levels still very low, it was not surprising home prices continued to rise at well-above-average rates. The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose 17.6% year-over-year to $383,477. Prices were up 5.4% compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ Annual home-price growth continues at well-above-average levels, but as mortgage rates start to creep higher, I expect some modest slowing in the pace of growth. But not yet!

❱ Prices rose in every sub-market compared to the same quarter last year, with significant gains in Summerlin. An additional nine neighborhoods saw double-digit price growth.

❱ Buyer demand remains robust, which continues to benefit home sellers.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for the greater Las Vegas area.

Days on Market

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the region dropped nine days compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

❱ Regionally, it took an average of 37 days to sell a home in the final quarter of 2020, which is 5 fewer days than in the third quarter.

❱ Days on market dropped or remained static in all the neighborhoods contained in this report compared to a year ago.

❱ The greatest decline in market time was again in The Lakes/Section 10, where the length of time it took to sell a home dropped 16 days.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in the greater Las Vegas area.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in the greater Las Vegas area.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The market continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. Demand is in place and buyers remain very active. Even modestly rising mortgage rates likely won’t be a deterrent to home buyers. Although frustrated by the lack of homes for sale, they are still looking, which benefits home sellers. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in their favor.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q4 2020 Nevada Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Windermere Real Estate.